Conclusions on AV & Assembly Elections - for now ++

AV
The people have spoken in a referendum. But what was the referendum about, Nick Clegg and his Liberals?

It doesn't matter which side you look from this was unthinking politics at its best! To think the No campaign was supported by our so called intelligencia from our most famous political school and what used to be our finest university without the slightest attempt to deal with the issues or the slightest respect for the Liberals who have delivered them a stable government. What a calamity! Give me London University and LSE any day. Well I would say that, wouldn't I?

One of the jibes on the literature that came through my door said 'there's nothing progressive about the Liberals'.


Personally I would conclude 'there is nothing progressive about the Labour Party either'! Fifty percent of them are brain dead, at least the other side knew what they were doing, as a party they are sleep walking into a lifetime rout unless Events intervene, eg a slump. I can see the Liberals will bounce back if they hold their nerve, I am not so sure Labour deserve to yet. Labour, pre-Tony Blair, was my ever constant preference. 

Not a single party presented the case for AV here in Swansea. If they did I saw no sign of it. That was what fired me up a couple of postings ago to explain how AV should work to make a parliament more representative picture of people's preferences.


Nick Clegg shot himself in the foot by saying much earlier that AV was 'a miserable little compromise'. I think AV has considerable benefits not least its simplicity! and that voting is for named/known candidates. Its weakness is its unpredictability in any one constituency, which varies from precisely the same result as 'first past the post' (FPTP) if every voter nominates only his first choice to something akin to proportional representation if used positively.


Turning to the Welsh Assembly elections with one exception all the local parties ran negative campaigns. The exception here was Plaid Cymru, and for only the second time in my 45 years in South Wales did they get my vote. A dyed in the wool Englishman I can see sense in having a Welsh Party in the Assembly, personally my only negative thoughts are that I think the adoption of the Welsh as the Prime Language (even worse the language of privilege) would be a disaster. That is my honest opinion, but it is a side show here so I will return to it later in this blog posting. The only other wholly positive campaign in the UK was apparently for the SNP in Scotland. I don't think the Plaid will have similar success until they get a leader who can match Alex Salmond's charisma on TV. (Come back Adam Price all is forgiven).


Look a bit closer at the Assembly elections in both countries. The Scottish situation I have dealt with, and the demise of Labour there is probably the consequence of a complacent Scottish Labour Party having failed to update, plus failing like Plaid in the TV personality stakes.

Welsh Labour in contrast stood up to Tony Blair, refused to accept his place men as leader, and that helped them develop confidence, unity, and modernise - though not yet anywhere near enough.

But what fascinates me most is the effect in both countries of a degree of proportionality. Take that away and use only the first past the post constituency results and a very different picture emerges.

In Wales under our proportional system the results were     
Labour/Conservative/Plaid/ Liberal  being 30/14/11/5 seats            

FPTP Constituency results alone the results were
Labour/Conservative/Plaid/Liberal (constituency ratio) 28/6/5/1

We don't hear much Conservative squealing about that. The fundamental question for Democracy is which is the truer reflection of the peoples wishes? I personally believe our FPTP model is failing and certainly not being adopted elsewhere in the world. Also valid is; which produces the better government?


Turning the same analysis to Scotland where there is a much higher ratio of proportionality purpose designed to thwart the SNP!
Under their proportional system seats were
Scottish National/ Labour/Conservative/Liberal 69/37/15/5

Based on FPTP constituency results alone the results were
Scottish National/Labour/Conservative/ Liberal 53/15/3/1

We don't hear much Conservative squealing about that either. The fundamental question for Democracy is which is the truer reflection of the peoples wishes? Also valid is; which produces the better government? 


If leaving the UK was judged on a FPTP system then there is little doubt Scotland with a 2+:1 overall victory ratio would be leaving the UK soon. A Referendum would have been fairer and much closer, but note the SNP elected in spite of a proportional system have large overall margin. Fingers crossed my counting is correct

WELSH LANGUAGE

I have not the slightest doubt that bilingualism learnt young is an aid to the development of the brainpower, that applies to equally to Welsh children, as to half my grandchildren whose first language is French but are uncommonly verbally skilled in English as well; or to the Indians who learn first the language of their State, then Hindi and many English as well. The current ascendancy of English across the world is not the point, I can well see it may well be challenged by Mandarin in future, probably in the romanised alphabet form of Pinyin, which is the way the Chinese find their way about Personal Computers.


Neither have I any doubt of the importance of keeping Welsh alive as a means of remembering the country's cultural roots and its literature. But as a way of progressing an economy and reducing the focus of printed information I believe it is a dead end. Two examples spring to mind, post colonial India turned its back on English but its current rapid emergence on the world stage owes much to the benefit of reviving that language. A few years after Joan and I left Canada General de Gaulle made his 'Vive le Quebec libre' speech in Montreal 1967, which produced a resurgence of thoughts of partition of Canada into an Eastern French speaking nation and the English speaking West. The Canadian government of the day reacted with a determined effort to make the whole country bi-lingual, for government jobs in particular, to what extent that remains the case today I do not know. But the 2 May 2011 Canadian general election, as Muriel Chamberlain reminded us, saw the once proud French speaking Parti (now Bloc) Quebecois trounced to just 6% of national vote.

ARTS
I have just bought tickets for tomorrows theatre 7.15pm 12 May in the Arts Wing of the Grand. It is for Chekhov's Uncle Vanja a masterpiece about wasted lives, since I have yet to see it can't say more except to note the recent local Fluellen Theatre's production of Hamlet 'in the round' was excellent. Incidentally getting involved in Swansea U3A is a perfect anti-dote to feeling ones time is wasted.

Tommaso Starace Quartet will appear at Jazzland next Wednesday 25 May £10 (£7 members). Anyone citing Cannonball Adderley and Charlie Parker as role models (instead of sprinkling names like confetti) should be another way of spending your time profitably. I will be watching the way our unique Louis Armstrong voiced announcer Berry Ray, pronounces Italian - thanks to the tuition of Carolina Rosati Jones.  

GROUPS
I have written enough this week except to give the latest news on the proposed German Group, the interested now numbers 10 - far better than expected, including drawing in two new members, making this years membership 772. Gislinde and I are about to set up their inaugural meeting. Once this is done time will be freed to turn my attention to Half Day Walking and Dinghy Sailing Day, and I haven't finished my ideas yet.