Tuesday, 10 May 2011

Conclusions on AV & Assembly Elections - for now ++

AV
The people have spoken in a referendum. But what was the referendum about, Nick Clegg and his Liberals?

It doesn't matter which side you look from this was unthinking politics at its best! To think the No campaign was supported by our so called intelligencia from our most famous political school and what used to be our finest university without the slightest attempt to deal with the issues or the slightest respect for the Liberals who have delivered them a stable government. What a calamity! Give me London University and LSE any day. Well I would say that, wouldn't I?

One of the jibes on the literature that came through my door said 'there's nothing progressive about the Liberals'.


Personally I would conclude 'there is nothing progressive about the Labour Party either'! Fifty percent of them are brain dead, at least the other side knew what they were doing, as a party they are sleep walking into a lifetime rout unless Events intervene, eg a slump. I can see the Liberals will bounce back if they hold their nerve, I am not so sure Labour deserve to yet. Labour, pre-Tony Blair, was my ever constant preference. 

Not a single party presented the case for AV here in Swansea. If they did I saw no sign of it. That was what fired me up a couple of postings ago to explain how AV should work to make a parliament more representative picture of people's preferences.


Nick Clegg shot himself in the foot by saying much earlier that AV was 'a miserable little compromise'. I think AV has considerable benefits not least its simplicity! and that voting is for named/known candidates. Its weakness is its unpredictability in any one constituency, which varies from precisely the same result as 'first past the post' (FPTP) if every voter nominates only his first choice to something akin to proportional representation if used positively.


Turning to the Welsh Assembly elections with one exception all the local parties ran negative campaigns. The exception here was Plaid Cymru, and for only the second time in my 45 years in South Wales did they get my vote. A dyed in the wool Englishman I can see sense in having a Welsh Party in the Assembly, personally my only negative thoughts are that I think the adoption of the Welsh as the Prime Language (even worse the language of privilege) would be a disaster. That is my honest opinion, but it is a side show here so I will return to it later in this blog posting. The only other wholly positive campaign in the UK was apparently for the SNP in Scotland. I don't think the Plaid will have similar success until they get a leader who can match Alex Salmond's charisma on TV. (Come back Adam Price all is forgiven).


Look a bit closer at the Assembly elections in both countries. The Scottish situation I have dealt with, and the demise of Labour there is probably the consequence of a complacent Scottish Labour Party having failed to update, plus failing like Plaid in the TV personality stakes.

Welsh Labour in contrast stood up to Tony Blair, refused to accept his place men as leader, and that helped them develop confidence, unity, and modernise - though not yet anywhere near enough.

But what fascinates me most is the effect in both countries of a degree of proportionality. Take that away and use only the first past the post constituency results and a very different picture emerges.

In Wales under our proportional system the results were     
Labour/Conservative/Plaid/ Liberal  being 30/14/11/5 seats            

FPTP Constituency results alone the results were
Labour/Conservative/Plaid/Liberal (constituency ratio) 28/6/5/1

We don't hear much Conservative squealing about that. The fundamental question for Democracy is which is the truer reflection of the peoples wishes? I personally believe our FPTP model is failing and certainly not being adopted elsewhere in the world. Also valid is; which produces the better government?


Turning the same analysis to Scotland where there is a much higher ratio of proportionality purpose designed to thwart the SNP!
Under their proportional system seats were
Scottish National/ Labour/Conservative/Liberal 69/37/15/5

Based on FPTP constituency results alone the results were
Scottish National/Labour/Conservative/ Liberal 53/15/3/1

We don't hear much Conservative squealing about that either. The fundamental question for Democracy is which is the truer reflection of the peoples wishes? Also valid is; which produces the better government? 


If leaving the UK was judged on a FPTP system then there is little doubt Scotland with a 2+:1 overall victory ratio would be leaving the UK soon. A Referendum would have been fairer and much closer, but note the SNP elected in spite of a proportional system have large overall margin. Fingers crossed my counting is correct

WELSH LANGUAGE

I have not the slightest doubt that bilingualism learnt young is an aid to the development of the brainpower, that applies to equally to Welsh children, as to half my grandchildren whose first language is French but are uncommonly verbally skilled in English as well; or to the Indians who learn first the language of their State, then Hindi and many English as well. The current ascendancy of English across the world is not the point, I can well see it may well be challenged by Mandarin in future, probably in the romanised alphabet form of Pinyin, which is the way the Chinese find their way about Personal Computers.


Neither have I any doubt of the importance of keeping Welsh alive as a means of remembering the country's cultural roots and its literature. But as a way of progressing an economy and reducing the focus of printed information I believe it is a dead end. Two examples spring to mind, post colonial India turned its back on English but its current rapid emergence on the world stage owes much to the benefit of reviving that language. A few years after Joan and I left Canada General de Gaulle made his 'Vive le Quebec libre' speech in Montreal 1967, which produced a resurgence of thoughts of partition of Canada into an Eastern French speaking nation and the English speaking West. The Canadian government of the day reacted with a determined effort to make the whole country bi-lingual, for government jobs in particular, to what extent that remains the case today I do not know. But the 2 May 2011 Canadian general election, as Muriel Chamberlain reminded us, saw the once proud French speaking Parti (now Bloc) Quebecois trounced to just 6% of national vote.

ARTS
I have just bought tickets for tomorrows theatre 7.15pm 12 May in the Arts Wing of the Grand. It is for Chekhov's Uncle Vanja a masterpiece about wasted lives, since I have yet to see it can't say more except to note the recent local Fluellen Theatre's production of Hamlet 'in the round' was excellent. Incidentally getting involved in Swansea U3A is a perfect anti-dote to feeling ones time is wasted.

Tommaso Starace Quartet will appear at Jazzland next Wednesday 25 May £10 (£7 members). Anyone citing Cannonball Adderley and Charlie Parker as role models (instead of sprinkling names like confetti) should be another way of spending your time profitably. I will be watching the way our unique Louis Armstrong voiced announcer Berry Ray, pronounces Italian - thanks to the tuition of Carolina Rosati Jones.  

GROUPS
I have written enough this week except to give the latest news on the proposed German Group, the interested now numbers 10 - far better than expected, including drawing in two new members, making this years membership 772. Gislinde and I are about to set up their inaugural meeting. Once this is done time will be freed to turn my attention to Half Day Walking and Dinghy Sailing Day, and I haven't finished my ideas yet.

Tuesday, 3 May 2011

CLYNE IN BLOOM

CLYNE GARDENS
1-31May is advertised as the best period to visit Clyne Gardens but I took these photos as I walked through from Blackpill this very morning and it seemed at its best to me. Don't delay your visit too long.





BUSES TO HAZEL COURT

At the time I was assessing the practicalities of getting back from Hazel Court by bus, my wife having a doctors appointment at the same time as Spanish Beginners class. I was lucky leaving at just after midday to immediately catch an 82A bus to Fulton House at the university. In fact I now know I should have got off earlier at the Singleton hospital since the minutes saved could have got me an earlier bus west along Mumbles Road whereas coming from the University I had just missed one, but the maximum delay between buses would be around 20 mins.  In fact I decided to walk to Blackpill but it would have been quicker to wait.

The advice thus is transfer to/from the 82A at university or hospital, whichever is closer to home. For some the ideal combination could be the Metro and 82A. For others like me go to Mumbles Road for the quickest transfer to city centre or Mumbles.



THE WELFARE, YSTRADGYNLAIS
Following Tuesday's monthly committee meeting I was browsing at the Civic Centre and came across the display being erected in the foyer The Josef Herman Arts Foundation located in the Welfare Hall Ystradgynlais which holds a collection of his work donated by his widow Dr Nini Herman. This particular exhibition in Swansea was targeted at promoting the 10th anniversary of The Josef Herman Award for Schools whereby children from across three Welsh counties are given the opportunity to work with a professional artist. 

Still waiting for my wife to finish our shopping I picked up the latest copy of What's On and was quite impressed by it current presentation which provides in modern advertising style the current leisure attractions in Swansea including of course restaurants but also the Taliesin, The Grand Theatre, Swansea Jazzland, and various Events - such as organised under the name Swansea Bay. A big step forward from the earlier style largely of small ads. Swansea U3A still has a small add promoting only the Wednesday lectures at the University - we could do much better than this. 

But what struck me was not just the full page advertising activities at The Welfare, Ystradgynlais but the imaginative program they had compiled. Something is clearly on-going there which deserves attention. Box Office 01639 843163, www.thewelfare.co.uk , and Facebook 'The Welfare, Ystradgynlais'. 
Finally the boast 'A new generation of digital 3D Cinema and satellite technology has arrived at The Welfare!' I feel they deserve support.


First to catch my eye on the program was the Live by Satellite transmission of Jamie Cullen's Solo concert at the Cheltenham Jazz Festival, but that has gone it was last Sunday and was reviewed in Tuesday's Guardian. Followed by a number of live events of music and theatre. The other which stood out for me was the National Theatre  production of 'The Cherry Orchard' by Chekhov and starring Zoe Wanamaker (also live via satellite) at 6.45pm on Thursday 30 June for £10, concessions £8. I knew that such transmissions were available at a cinema in Cardiff, indeed I intended to go but couldn't get to the previous event of its type 'King Lear', though I know Jill Govier did.


Four interesting films including 'Song of Freedom' starring Paul Robeson, 7pm on 9 May and 2.30pm on 13 May. This was featured earlier this year by Andrea Symonds in her presentation to our U3A British Film Studies group. 



ALTERNATIVE VOTE AV
I do not intend to go over the same ground again which was mainly to try to clarify how such a voting system to select the most liked candidate works when no one starts with an overall 50% majority. However I do believe it is a vital vote which could change the future of British politics. It very unfortunate it comes when the vote will inevitably be effected by the current unpopularity of Nick Clegg, disgruntled Liberal voters, many Labour voters and, to judge by the vindictive campaigning of the No camp, by the Conservatives as well. Somehow we have to rise above the present day situation and consider whether to vote Yes or No to Progressive Reform, on the merits of the serious long term issue it is. There is unlikely to be another opportunity to move towards a more representative house of Parliament in the near future, nor towards the more inclusive style of politics it will encourage.





SPANISH CONVERSATION
Last posting I was so concerned to promote the new Spanish Beginners Language Course that I forgot to mention my visit on the 5 April to the other Spanish group formed almost single handedly this year by Alison Burns, 290260  alisoneburns@yahoo.co.uk


On this occasion there were 13 members present at Starvin' Jacks cafe in the centre of Swansea, a very convenient location not far from Swansea City's new Bus Station. It was a lively meeting helped by an attractive theme, 'Talk About Things You Hate'. It will be no great surprise to those who know me well to learn my hate is the bane of our life, Sheep, those hefted baa'ing animals that think they have territorial rights to follow their traditional path through my garden in order to reach Clyne Common. Complaints from others varied from the way Tesco treat their customers to Ironing, Joan's pet hate as well, to many more I have forgotten.

The recent email enquiry about a potential Improvers language course identified 11 people (of whom I am one) and I have kept a record of the members who replied positively but there is no way of proceeding until we can identify someone and willing to lead such a group. In the meantime I would advise them to try out this conversation group, I very much enjoyed this last session.

It was good to be listening to Spanish for only the second time this year. For me as a traveller learning that language opened up the Latin America continent from Mexico, Guatemala, Peru, Chile and Argentina to Ushuaia and the Beagle Channel the point of departure to Antartica. Experiences spread over many months and several years that I would not have wanted to miss. 

BEGINNERS SPANISH LANGUAGE


I attended this morning to find the class has already grown to 11 and was very impressed both at the speed the class has gelled as a unit and the style of teaching. Almost a case of forget the complexities of grammar but listen and speak fluently, learn vocabulary relevant to today's exercises, and above all make the vowels and the accentuation sound Spanish. Very simple still, but very good for me who speaks Spanish with a mix of English and French sounds.


YOGA


I slipped into Edna Jones's 9.30 Wednesday morning session on my way to Spanish just to take this photo. I go to Christine Bryan's Thursday class because the timing suits me better, this is restarting after their Easter break at 10am 5 May. Joga is a big help to retaining suppleness.

ARMCHAIR TRAVEL
Bumping into Margaret Massey after today's superb lecture contrasting the English and French approach to colonies by Professor Muriel Chamberlain I was reminded Margaret is presenting to the group this Friday 6 May at 2.30 in Hazel Court her recent travels to North Africa.
Bob Hughes is taking over as convenor of this group for 2011/2 and already has a program arranged