GROUPS, ALTERNATE VOTE (AV), and BIG ISSUE

 Almost time for planting
 'Don't cast a clout till May is Out', I know it's Blackthorn now but May (Hawthorn) will soon follow.

ALTERNATE VOTE for the next GENERAL ELECTION?

Politics and Citizenship discuss the Welsh Elections and AV

Those who, like me, favour Proportional Representation should vote YES to the Alternate Vote (AV) as it will get us a considerable way forward and is the only system on offer for the foreseeable future.

Those who prefer First Past The Post should vote NO to AV. If there is a No Vote to AV any question of having a more proportional voting system will be put on the back burner.


Most Western European countries including Wales and most New Democracies have some form of proportional voting. This piece is written by way of explanation of the AV system and not to make a political point......honest.

Why do I dislike First Past The Post so much, it is because it often results in unfettered power to the winning party. Think of the decade of huge majorities first to Margaret Thatcher and then to Tony Blair, and what they were able to do with such impunity. Both those governments would have been improved by having to take other views into account. Love or hate the Liberals at the moment you have to admit they are rubbing some of the rough edges off Tory policies and have so far negated the Tory right wing. By going into coalition they saved the country from being forced into the chaos of a second election, at a time when stability was the absolute key.

The big advantage of AV is that it aims for a fairer contest at each constituency.  AV thus retains the link with each MP representing a single constituency, whereas pure Proportional Representation considers only the total national votes. The Welsh Assembly is voted for by a half way house in which 2/3 of the AMs represent a constituency, and 1/3 have no constituency link but move the national result closer to proportionality with the total national votes. 


The best example of how turn-overs can work in practice is given by the recent election of the Labour Leader. (I was travelling in India at the time so please forgive me if the details are wrong, but the sense is correct.) Labour MPs, Unions and Constituencies were allowed to rank the candidates 1, 2, 3, in order of preference. candidate. 

David Miliband led after the first ballot but crucially failed to get 50%. So the second choices of loser Ed Balls were added and in it was his brother Ed Miliband who emerged as the winner. That's an example of a 'Turn Over', and is not typical of the norm which is that the leader in the First Choices goes on to win with over 50% of the votes. Whatever you may think of the final outcome in this contest is irrelevant to this example but what you can deduce is that Ed had broader support in the Party than his brother, the difference I understand being mainly with the unions.


For what it's worth my own choice would have been Ed Balls (even better his wife Yvette Cooper who was not standing). I guess David suffered from being too close to Tony Blair and Ed Balls from being too closely associated with today's pet hate figure Gordon Brown, whose role in leading the world in face of the credit crunch I still expect to be recognised in retrospect.


This example was to consider only a single election (Leader of the Opposition), though a rather important one! In a General Election there are hundreds of constituencies and in the vast majority the winner who wins on first choices will emerge as the eventual winner. In a closely fought seat it is quite possible that the second or even the third candidate will emerge as eventual winner if they have broader support when the balancing act of adding in the second and lower choices is done. It ought to (probably will) vastly increase the number of Liberal Democrat MPs, making their number of seats closer to their proportion of the vote..


Lets now see how four quite different voters might vote for a single typical Welsh Seat in a GENERAL Election. There are four main parties in alphabetic order Labour, Liberal (Democrat), Plaid and Tory. Purely as an example let's see how a sensible person might vote, adding in a couple of other thoughtful choices such as UKIP and Green.

      Voter A       Voter B      Voter C     Voter D

1)   Labour        Liberal       Plaid          Tory
2)   Plaid           Tory           Labour       UKIP
3)   Liberal        Labour       Liberal       Liberal
4)   Green          Green         Green        Green


Note neither the Labour or the Tory inclined voted for the party he detests most and no-one has a voted for a party he doesn't want to have a voice in parliament, for example BNP, Communist, Monster Raving Lunatic.



Labour (in the old days at least) would have the most First Choice votes but nowadays it may well be less than 50%. This situation is merely meant to be an example. So let's emphasise that we are considering only one seat, in others Plaid or Liberal or Tory might have the biggest vote on First Choice. On probability it is likely that the Green party would be last and drop out but then their second choice votes would be transferred to the other three candidates probably boosting the Labour or Liberal vote. Assuming no-one has reached 50% the lowest party remaining would now drop out and it's choices 2nd and lower choices would be added in to the remaining parties. And so on, until one party passes the winning 50% post.


My wife asks what if there are 12 parties how do I rank them, the answer is that you rank only those you want to have a voice in parliament, just two choices, better still three or four, is capable of making a big difference in a close contest. Then she asks will this rule out success for say Independents or Greens, and the answer is if they have really popular (good) candidates then their chances may well be enhanced by being the second choice of most of the others. Think for example of two recent examples, a well loved ex Labour candidate running as an Independent against his own party, or say the talented Green candidate Caroline Lucas. On the other hand a party without broad support, say the BNP, is unlikely to emerge the winner under AV.

How many spider's webs can you spot?

GROUP LEADERS for NEXT YEAR
Always at the end of the year some leaders will want to hand over. In Swansea U3A this has been mainly those with a large number of years in the position wanting a well earned rest. Last year we had to find replacement for Margaret Hammond in the Politics and Citizenship Group, Margaret had reached 90 but sadly is no longer with us. Margaret Massey decided 17 years as leader and instigator of the Gardening Group was long enough. Luckily we have good replacements for both highly successful groups with 20 to 30 regulars Gabrielle Suff is doing an excellent job with Politics and a team of three or four lead by Margaret Cross are running Gardening.


This year a couple more long standing Groups seek renewal under a new leader, Barbara Brimfield is handing over the 'Local History' group after 13 years and Margaret Winter is standing down from the History Group after 11 years at the helm. Both groups are highly successful and shown by turn outs with 30 to 40 a session. Both meet in the city centre. We cannot afford to allow such well attended groups to go to the wall.

Margaret Hammond has been replaced as leader of the Research Group on a temporary basis by Marjorie Vanston, who also runs the Welsh group. They deal with projects selected by the staff of  Swansea Museum, and in the interests of space are split into two small teams who meet in the Museum on alternate Wednesdays.

In addition Margaret Webster is standing down as organiser of the Sunday Luncheon Group having completed the 12 months she agreed to as a stop gap.

It would be true to say that members of all these groups are in the higher bracket, long established groups tend to grow older together, but this should be no deterrent to a new younger leader for there is plenty of incentive to work towards a younger age profile and to modify the way the group is run.

I would be delighted to hear from anyone interested in helping in any capacity with any of those four groups. Please simply reply to the Blog Alert email from me, Brian Corbett the Groups' Coordinator. Enthusiasm is the main pre-requisite, advice and guidance will surely be available from the present incumbents, and remember shared responsibility will work, you are not committing yourself to be present every session (look at me disappearing for two months at a time).

The U3A is a self help organisation, or nothing, from those according to their abilities to those according to their needs. Are you happy that you are contributing as much as you can? 

SPANISH LEARNING

Keith Barry teaching, Christine Broomhall (Convenor), Joyce Marris, Lyn Jones and me (photographer) 

Keith Barry is teaching the Spanish language to a group of eight in Hazel Court every Wednesday morning, not even currently a U3A member he simply wants to 'keep his hand in'. He has many other interests such as Badminton and keep fit in the gym. Their third meeting will be Wednesday 20 April, the class is starting entirely from scratch so if you have no fore-knowledge then the sooner you start the better. If you have some fore-knowledge consider joining next University Year.

I attended his second lesson and as promised the accent was on speaking and it was a very effective method of teaching the like of which I had not previously encountered the objective being instinctive fluency in the spoken language through repetition of responses in pairs. It put me in mind of Professor Michael Thomas, whose subject is Psychological Sciences, not languages in the grammatical sense, at Birbeck College London University, though I may be utterly mistaken since I know only of his standing not his methods. His style is characterised as 'learn a foreign language the way you learnt your own'. 


I have produced a simple spreadsheet which provides an easy way of keeping track of attendance and money, the 'kitty', which this group I hope will trial. They already have a Convenor so this is looking like the smoothest start-up yet. My swan song, or is there time for one more?


ARMCHAIR TRAVEL
Bob Hughes is to replace Brian Davies who was around five years as Convenor, the same Bob as put new life into Bridge classes. They have already got a program out for next University Year and this represents a change in emphasis from one speaker per session to two half an hour slots, to get as many as possible involved. Most of us have holidays so why not join in and talk about yours.

MOTO (Members on Their Own)
Rosemary Brangwyn 202029 now runs this group replacing the founder Gerwyn Thomas who had to reduce his load following a severe heart attack. She phoned in to give me some news just as I was about to publish. The group now meet at 10.30am on the first Monday of each month in the Coffee Shop in the Dragon Hotel to plan future events.


They have recently had a visit by train to Narbeth, and seventeen of them had a 'brunch' of Paninis and coffee in the Grand Hotel. A party are going for a holiday together at the Bosworth Hall Hotel with day trips to Stratford and Warwick my beautiful home town.


SPRING OUTING to Welsh National Botanic Gardens
Joan and I were part of the coach-load who spent 6 April at the gardens and what a delightful day it was, all the more special by contrast to the day before when it rained and rained.

                                                                               




Barbara Garnham (Outings Organiser) and Margaret Winter, History Convenor








Barbara Ellis and Joan in the Hothouse












BIG ISSUE
I have long been a supporter both in a terms of a small annual donation to the underlying Big Issue Foundation, but above all by buying, and reading, copies from the street sellers. So if you see a man with the latest Big Issue under his arm then that's how to recognise me! The magazine is increasingly worth reading but the last one I purchased was their Twentieth Anniversary was special and contained an article by founder and Editor in Chief John Bird. He is the original exponent of the idea of 'tough love'. He makes the telling point that street sellers (vendors) have to prove their housing status get their first five magazines free, but thereafter they have to buy them at £1 each. They cannot return magazines they do not sell. He is encouraging some of the most deprived (homeless or vulnerably housed) to learn the business ethic. 'A hand up not a hand out' is their ethos, 'self help' their way. Decriminalizing homelessness is one of their big aims, better to earn than steal even if it does go on drink.


The Big Issue Foundation is a charity, its major functions are to provide training for vendors and help them build skills, but also to provide access to health care and dentistry, for many do not have the ID needed to register with a GP. It is one of the charities acceptable as beneficiary of Waitrose's 'Community Matters' monthly local initiative.
www.bigissue.org.uk

I did not know that Gordon and Anita Roddick of Body Shop supported Big Issue from its inception. John Bird met Gordon Roddick when John was hiding from the police aged 21, he was then a rough sleeper and petty thief with a drink problem. Twenty years on he met Gordon again, by then the co-owner of successful Body Shop. It was Gordon who asked him to start a street paper, 'who carefully took some , and that business nouse - and sprinkled it on the poor'. But it is to deceased Anita that he gives the greatest plaudits, 'she had the fire of social justice burning in her'.