REFERENDUM, WHAT NOW?

For those wishing to Remain in Europe there are three encouraging well argued articles in today's Guardian, the leader, those by Nick Clegg and Zoe Williams.

The Leading article is asking for patience from our friends in Europe and not to write us off for at least 48% of us wish to retain the closest of links with Europe. Asking forgiveness, for sending huge destabilising shock waves all over Europe, 'not contempt for a nation that backed Brexit on a series of fantasies and lies'. Not to press 'too hard for the invocation of article 50' (the starting gun) until our political disarray has had time to recover or we may be rushed 'into choices that you may regret'.

Nick Clegg argues that Britain importantly deserves a new election before activating article 50. Writing that 'The government not only finds itself without leader-ship, it has no plan, no consensus and no clue about what it wants to do in the future' . It agrees only ' that the UK should leave the EU.'  

'The new prime minister ... should immediately publish a white paper setting out a full plan ... and must seek a democratic mandate for their plan in an early general election.' Crucially article 50 should be triggered only after that plan is scrutinised in parliament followed by a vote of consent from MPs.

He like me fears moves 'to turn the city into a low - regulation Dubai'. The intention recently expressed by George Osborne of a big reduction in Corporation Tax from 20% to 15% (under half that of the major countries of Europe) indicates that he like Ireland will be attempting to attract companies keen to reduce their taxation in a race to beggar our neighbours in a race to the bottom. What price British Values then?

Ireland did it to escape from severe financial trouble but Osborne claimed our economy was the best performing around.

Zoe Williams and Paul Mason of the Guardian have recently revealed that they, like me, voted in favour of the Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. Zoe worries that a snap General Election could be called before Labour have corrected their current disarray. She writes that he won by a landslide 'that leadership election against three politicians who had forgotten how to make the core arguments in favour of social democracy'. 

Remember Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall - were all established figures. He alone represented a long lost case for integrity, straight speaking, and demanding social values which spoke to people far outside Labour's ranks.  Perhaps it was the enormity of his success appeal to the masses which caused the regrettable cold shoulders he received from Labour MPs. 

Zoe argues that the Labour Party is tearing itself apart when they agree fundamentally with his views 'over privatising the NHS; over the importance of a social safety net; over the role of taxation; over appropriate regulation in markets, over energy and climate change'.

Even though I believe that replacing Trident is a huge waste of money as well as a danger to a world that says it believes in nuclear disarmament we could merely continue with the current government's policy of kicking the issue into the long grass.  

Just some thoughts of my own. Contrast all this idle talk about the saving of weekly costs of being a member of Europe with the costs and waste of highly skilled manpower which will be needed to unravel ourselves and replace forty years of agreements with Europe. A process which could all to easily leave us with less rights as individuals, in or out of work. No doubt there is some unnecessary complication but the major thrust surely were to improve our standard of life.

Above all what has happened to the promise of eliminating unwanted immigration from European nationals whilst retaining our trade agreements? Let's face it, we were conned!

To finish on a lighter note congratulations to Wales and their place in the semi-finals of the European Cup. As an English immigrant  of exactly 50 years standing perhaps I can now claim to be fully integrated. However last night saw the end of Iceland's dream and my wish to see Wales and Iceland meet in the final. 

IMMEDIATE REFLECTION ON REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN

I am deliberately writing down my thoughts after only a thirty second discussion with my wife on waking from a well earned sleep following the pressures of campaigning on the streets for the Stronger IN Campaign. She told me we had lost 52/48%, that the Northern Ireland and Scottish populations and Londoners voted IN but Wales and England held the opposing and dominant view. That there was talk of a United Ireland.

MY POSITIVE HOPE the unification of Ireland. If ever there was a case for open borders this is it. If this really happens I would be delighted for the many good Irish friends I made in my youth in Canada, mostly but not all from the then economically depressed South. Hopefully this marks the end of Christian bigotry. I hope this does not result in their small population being overwhelmed by European migration

One day we will see the end of similar division in the Muslim communities of the world. If our (Joan and I) all but 25 years of independent global travel, as a lone couple using slow local scheduled transport (bus and train) without pre-booking or fixed itineraries, taught us anything it was the welcome and friendliness  of such people across Turkey and Asia of Malaysia, Indonesia, India and the huge Xin Jang province of Western China. Until then we had known practically nothing of Islam except their rejection of alcohol.

I hope to see Port Talbot, where I worked for 30 years, retained fully as both an Iron and a Steelmaker. The government can't any longer argue they are ham strung by EU rules.

WHAT DO I FEAR MOST a dramatic knock on increase in fragmentation of the Western World in terms of polarised political division within countries and the political elite of each country thinking only of its own self interest, never of the common good. That is not my kind of World.

OBSERVATIONS from my first involvement in political campaigning on the streets. 
1  The polite good nature of all our population
2  IN and OUT were clearer alternatives than REMAIN/ LEAVE
3  The high proportion during working hours at least in Swansea Uplands clearly not of Celtic or Anglo Saxon stock.
4  The high proportion of people who had exercised Postal Votes
5  I talked to several Poles who arrived here 10 years ago all of whom were in work or running businesses, proud to be paying taxes and obviously well integrated.
6  Several, often irate, convinced we should not be working with the Germany after what they did to us in past world wars, and more worrying to me what they were doing to Greece today.
7  Immigration was less often raised than I thought, strangely more often by thinking people like my own wife Joan who had voted IN but reluctantly for this very reason
8  One who told me in a voice that 'I should be ashamed of myself' for supporting Germany'
9  Another hurt more - 'Tony Benn (one of my political heroes) would be ashamed of you' adding - ordinary working people are taking the brunt' - no doubt thinking of the dangers of over rapid immigration from Europe. 
10 Several voiced the view that we elect politicians to govern not  shirk responsibility - My view entirely.
11  I went to my first street session concerned that the Labour backed STRONGER IN EUROPE campaign might be represented by Trade unionists wondering how they would react to a university educated comfortable middle class citizen like me. Only to be met  by a really well organised group largely of university graduates including no less than four  doctors, one a consultant another expecting to become a Registrar next year, one of whom born in the UK of Pakistani parents was a committed socialist and a member of the Labour party. My first thought being of empathy with the group, today's reflection being maybe that's part of the problem the EU is seen as being for the rich and the privileged not the ordinary man. 

12  The presence of so many doctors was a reflection of the damage caused by Jeremy Hunt's campaign to a hardworking profession. My memory was of a profession almost entirely Conservative but now antagonised and  increasingly politically active.


MY HOPE AN END TO LEADERS WITHOUT SINCERE POLITICAL PRINCIPALS.

David Cameron being the current example who clearly damaged the IN vote from traditional Labour voters making them reluctant to vote with him. they certainly did not realise OUT would increase the power of the Tory Right Wing and encourage the less sincere and less principled Boris Johnson. He flitted from his Green, Big Society, Hug a Hoodie policies as he moved right to get elected. He choose to call this disastrous referendum to fight off UKIP.

Tony Blair was another a plausible master of the media adept at riding the political whims of the day. I joined a joyous, hopeful, Labour Party on retirement 20 years ago with time to spare for politics. But left them disillusioned within his first 100 days, long before talk of Iraq. He did however do a great deal of good via a substantial increase in investment in the NHS - attempting to bring the funding up to Western European standards. Also by highlighting the importance of quality Education for the masses, and then by funding it.
Nigel Farage is another chancer who can't be trusted with the truth.

That leaves JEREMY CORBYN,  Labour MP should build on his his unerring socialist principles. He was pro Europe throughout this campaign but too honest to ignore the need for structural reform of the EU.
Currently he lacks the support of Labours MPs. 

'Shame on them'

I hope Scotland does not vote for independence. 

Why did the Labour Party let Gordon Brown take the blame for a world financial crisis? He was world statesman in coordinating the solution (saving the banks) to the immediate crisis and in my eyes is still easily the best political heavy weight and speaker we have. Why he performed so poorly as Prime Minister I will never understand, was it the simply stress?



Here's hoping the repercussions on the EU and their Prime Ministers will result in a fitter EU, rapidly enough to prevent its breakup. They have been served a strong rejection by the British people. 






 





    

EU REFERENDUM, blogging again

INTRODUCTION
Only a few weeks ago I doubted I would ever see Britain Trump the level of hyperbole, dishonesty and hate in USA politics but it seems all too obvious we have. Deliberate creation of Fear or Greed on both sides of the argument via threats and promises. Most projecting forecasts as facts when no-on can ever predict the future with certainty. Promises and threats from those without the political power to deliver - for not even ministers in a sorely divided Government can do that. 

Since writing this section I have to include the tragic news of the killing by stabbing and shooting of the young, highly principled MP, Jo Cox, quite possibly resulting from hate stirred by this campaign in a mentally unstable person.

More of the big issues of the current campaign which I deem to be related to TRADE and ECONOMICS, MIGRATION, POLITICS and the prospects of REFORM of the EU.

TRADE and ECONOMICS

What will happen to trade with Europe? For me the one undeniable certainty is there will be substantial risk and a period of uncertainty if we vote to leave. Trade with Europe may recover but seems unlikely to be fully restored given the increased degree of hostility from many of our jilted European partners and manufactures like the Japanese car makers who came here for easy access to European markets.

Trade with the rest of the world may improve. It has to for any net gains to the UK exports will have to come from this area. These days with little manufacturing industry left we have nothing to offer bar the financial clout of the City of London. A British Isles full of tax havens and a world leading expertise of accountants skilled in imparting methods of avoiding tax.

The vast majority of experts seem to be convinced that it would be a financial tragedy to leave, but then they would be in favour of the sitting Prime Minister wouldn't they? That however doesn't mean they are wrong, although very anti both sides of Project Fear I think they are probably right. There is a though a plausible alternative view though it may well take time to establish.

For all the who-ha this issue, dominated by FEAR, is not the vital one for me.

MIGRATION

Adds YOUTH,  DYNAMISM and BREADTH to a Society. It is Good and NEEDS a POSITIVE RESPONSE.

This item will not go away whether we are in the EU or not. We now live in a rapidly expanding very unequal world already of 7 Billion people of which the UK form less than one percent. Many will want understandably to move country or continents for financial gain. Add to that the huge outflow escaping the major war zone that is today's Middle East, for which region's current instability the USA, UK, France and Russia arguably own much of the blame.

Just turned 21 in 1956 I emigrated to Canada because I was offered over three times the starting salary on offer to a newly qualified graduate engineer in the UK. No doubt Canada was as pleased to see me as we have been to accept expensively trained doctors or trained nurses from  India the Philippines or Europe. In all cases, including my own, it denudes the country of origin of the benefits of educating their populations.The much vaunted Points System of Australia and Canada is designed with that prime aim.

Salaries are a major factor especially for the young, but those who choose to emigrate in a fresh start are characterized by courage and healthy ambition. In my case I initially faced loneliness for a few months without a close friend for the first and only time in my life, the loss of family and a lifestyle dominated by playing Rugby and Cricket (captain of university and school respectively).

Of a TOTALLY DIFFERENT NATURE to economic migration are the REFUGEES fleeing war and wholesale destruction of the fabric of their lives in the Middle East. Our national response, government and populace, to this tragedy is to wash our hands of our responsibility to help refugees. A response of which I am ashamed. I applaud the generous welcome given by Angela Merkel, and deplore the lack of support from other EU leaders for which  she is now paying a party political price in her own country.

Elimination of borders worked extremely well in Europe for years until strained to breaking point by the uncontrollable influx of refugees from the Middle East. Followed it must be said by economic migrants from Africa jumping on the bandwagon once it became apparent to all that such determined mass flows could not be stopped.

Equally freedom of movement across the borders went well, our eldest son moved to France over twenty years ago and his family though nominally British from their dad's side are French speaking, though bilingual. Freedom of Movement was then a two way process in reasonable balance. The problems of Economic Migration were not highlighted until the over rapid expansion of the EU to include the much poorer countries of Eastern Europe. That expansion was driven by the markedly different prosperity of the two regions, financial and political. Britain was the first to suffer the strain, though I have encountered little but praise of the Poles who opened the flood gates here. In time such flows will reduce naturally as lifestyles across Europe become more alike. But for the moment the unmanaged surge is causing huge problems.
 
POLITICS

Freedom of movement like the elimination of borders and the single currency and the inclusion of other countries were all laudable essential aims in trying to achieve a cohesive continent. But for different reasons each has come under huge pressure from events, none more so than freedom of movement combined with the over rapid expansion of nation states within the EU. We should be glad that Gordon Brown kept us out of the Euro, for he alone in Blair's pro-Europe Labour government saw the deficiencies in the lack of the structure needed to encompass countries with fluctuating widely differing economies.

Thus today we have Greece still being offered bail outs which increase debts they will never be able to repay with ever heightened austerity, when what is needed is a debt write off, a helping hand to give them a chance. Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy have suffered too. Youth unemployment is huge across the continent, and that includes France. There are huge real problems to sort but this does not rule out a highly satisfactory outcome to vital aims with huge potential benefits. 

Dangerous political instability, almost hysteria, is visible in America, Europe and the Middle East. Some extreme right wing others left wing, far to few politicians arguing rationally and calmly. This is not the right time fragment Europe with too many countries seeking the best for its own people, and damn the rest. 

Surely few would argue with the value coming out of the 1939-45 war of France and Germany determined to work together to create a united Europe. That was an era of politicians deserving of great credit and a heart felt vote of thanks.

But Britain was very late to join in and has always tried to minimise our political involvement.  Europe needs us, I believe we have far more to gain by being IN than a strong Britain can achieve on its own. Lets vote IN and work to improve our continent not just ourselves. Undoubtedly Britain looks back on its glorious past but the world is moving on at an ever increasing pace. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO JUMP OFF. 

Greece, Italy in the days of the Romans, many European countries have since dominated the world with colonies. The British Empire might have been the most successful but Spain and Portugal challenge particularly in South America, the Dutch discovered New York (once New Amsterdam) then ruled Indonesia, the Portuguese Goa in India, France vied with us of in the plunder of India, Belgium had the Congo, Germany was at the game too.

Columbus discovered America. Was Greece the originator of great written literature? Copernicus was Polish he saw that the Sun was the hub of our world. Is Europe not still the site of Learning prized by China. Much of modern science began in Europe. Did Europe not give the world it's greatest music?

We have given the the world its most universally revered language English, the language of the educated in India, currently challenged by Spanish but in the future perhaps by Mandarin using our alphabet. 

Britain and Europe have great histories. The future belongs to huge populations of China and India with their massive populations, should we lie back isolated or join forces with the rest of Europe and compete?

DEVELOP EUROPE or sink

The political turmoil around the continent tells me that discontent with the EU is wide spread. 

The EU desperate to become more accountable without which it will never gain public support. Many of the annoying directives are aimed at improving and unifying standards across the continent. Resentment is not limited to Britain where we recently learned, in a chance meeting, of zero help towards the cost of meeting new EU standards on hygiene from a couple starting a new butchers business, Jim in France talked recently of local farmers complaining about the cost of complying with European regulations on the handling of animal waste. Neither is the wish for democratic control of only local concern, the EU seems like a civil service unconstrained by democracy.

We as individuals need to be informed about current EU proposals to the same degree that we are of the activities in our own parliament via the very same mechanisms via Radio, TV and Internet. Is it my fault that I do not even know the name of my representative MEP or have little understanding of the complex structure of the EU? 

You may judge for yourselves if I am similarly ignorant of British parliamentary matters. HUMAN RIGHTS is one of Europe's biggest achievements, I for one am completely relaxed over European law in this area.

Yet from the current discussion you would think we had already lost our democracy, or by voting IN we will lose sovereignty to the EU.

I am convinced we should work wholeheartedly in positive negotiation with other nation states to produce the stable, successful, EU all the nations of Europe need.

STRONGER IN EUROPE   

     

EU REFERENDUM, blogging again

INTRODUCTION
Only a few weeks ago I doubted I would ever see Britain Trump the level of hyperbole, dishonesty and hate in USA politics but it seems all too obvious we have. Deliberate creation of Fear or Greed on both sides of the argument via threats and promises. Most projecting forecasts as facts when no-on can ever predict the future with certainty. Promises and threats from those without the political power to deliver - for not even ministers in a sorely divided Government can do that. 

Since writing this section I have to include the tragic news of the killing by stabbing and shooting of the young, highly principled MP, Jo Cox, quite possibly resulting from hate stirred by this campaign in a mentally unstable person.

More of the big issues of the current campaign which I deem to be related to TRADE and ECONOMICS, MIGRATION, POLITICS and the prospects of REFORM of the EU.

TRADE and ECONOMICS

What will happen to trade with Europe? For me the one undeniable certainty is there will be substantial risk and a period of uncertainty if we vote to leave. Trade with Europe may recover but seems unlikely to be fully restored given the increased degree of hostility from many of our jilted European partners and manufactures like the Japanese car makers who came here for easy access to European markets.

Trade with the rest of the world may improve. It has to for any net gains to the UK exports will have to come from this area. These days with little manufacturing industry left we have nothing to offer bar the financial clout of the City of London. A British Isles full of tax havens and a world leading expertise of accountants skilled in imparting methods of avoiding tax.

The vast majority of experts seem to be convinced that it would be a financial tragedy to leave, but then they would be in favour of the sitting Prime Minister wouldn't they? That however doesn't mean they are wrong, although very anti both sides of Project Fear I think they are probably right. There is a though a plausible alternative view though it may well take time to establish.

For all the who-ha this issue, dominated by FEAR, is not the vital one for me.

MIGRATION

Adds YOUTH,  DYNAMISM and BREADTH to a Society. It is Good and NEEDS a POSITIVE RESPONSE.

This item will not go away whether we are in the EU or not. We now live in a rapidly expanding very unequal world already of 7 Billion people of which the UK form less than one percent. Many will want understandably to move country or continents for financial gain. Add to that the huge outflow escaping the major war zone that is today's Middle East, for which region's current instability the USA, UK, France and Russia arguably own much of the blame.

Just turned 21 in 1956 I emigrated to Canada because I was offered over three times the starting salary on offer to a newly qualified graduate engineer in the UK. No doubt Canada was as pleased to see me as we have been to accept expensively trained doctors or trained nurses from  India the Philippines or Europe. In all cases, including my own, it denudes the country of origin of the benefits of education in their populations.The much vaunted Points System of Australia and Canada is designed with that prime aim.

Salaries are a major factor especially for the young, but those who choose to emigrate in a fresh start are characterized by courage and healthy ambition. In my case I initially faced loneliness for a few months without a close friend for the first and only time in my life, the loss of family and a lifestyle dominated by playing Rugby and Cricket (captain of university and school respectively).

Of a TOTALLY DIFFERENT NATURE to economic migration are the REFUGEES fleeing war and wholesale destruction of the fabric of their lives in the Middle East. Our national response, government and populace, to this tragedy is to wash our hands of our responsibility to help refugees. A response of which I am ashamed. I applaud the generous welcome given by Angela Merkel, and deplore the lack of support from other leaders for which  she is now paying a party political price in her own country.

Elimination of borders worked extremely well in Europe for years until strained to breaking point by the uncontrollable influx of refugees from the Middle East. Followed it must be said by economic migrants from Africa jumping on the bandwagon once it became apparent to all that such determined mass flows could not be stopped.

Equally freedom of movement across the borders went well, our eldest son moved to France over twenty years ago and his family though nominally British from their dad's side are French speaking, though bilingual. Freedom of Movement was a two way process in reasonable balance. The problems of Economic Migration were not highlighted until the over rapid expansion of the EU into the much poorer countries of Eastern Europe. The expansion was driven by the markedly different prosperity of the two regions, financial and political. Britain was the first to suffer the strain, though I have encountered little but praise of the Poles who opened the flood gates. In time such flows will reduce naturally as lifestyles across Europe become more alike. But for the moment the unmanaged surge is causing huge problems.
 
POLITICS

Freedom of movement like the elimination of borders and the single currency and the inclusion of other countries were all laudable essential aims in trying to achieve a cohesive continent. But for different reasons each has come under huge pressure from events, none more so than freedom of movement combined with the over rapid expansion of nation states within the EU. We should be glad that Gordon Brown kept us out of the Euro, for he alone in Blair's pro-Europe Labour government saw the deficiencies in the lack of the structure needed to encompass countries with widely differing economies.

Thus today we have Greece still being offered bail outs which increase debts they will never be able to repay, when what is needed is a debt write off, a helping hand to give them a chance. Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy have suffered too. Youth unemployment is huge across the continent, and that includes France. There are huge real problems to sort but this does not rule out a highly satisfactory outcome to vital aims with huge potential benefits. 

Dangerous political instability, almost hysteria is visible in America, Europe and the Middle East. Some extreme right wing others left wing, far to few politicians arguing rationally and calmly. This is not the right time fragment Europe with too many countries seeking the best for its own people, and damn the rest. 

Surely few would argue with the value coming out of the 1939-45 war of France and Germany determined to work together to create a united Europe. That was an era of politicians deserving of great credit and a heart felt vote of thanks.

But Britain was very late to join in and has always tried to minimise our political involvement.  Europe needs us, I believe we have far more to gain by being IN than a strong Britain can achieve on its own. Lets vote IN and work to improve our continent not just ourselves. Undoubtedly Britain looks back on its glorious past but the world is moving on at an ever increasing pace. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO JUMP OFF. 

Greece, Italy in the days of the Romans, many European countries have since dominated the world with colonies. The British Empire might have been the most successful but Spain and Portugal challenge particularly in South America, the Dutch discovered New York (once New Amsterdam) then ruled Indonesia and Goa in India, France vied with us of in the plunder of India, Belgium had the Congo, Germany was at the game too.

Columbus discovered America. Was Greece the originator of great written literature? Copernicus was Polish he saw that the Sun was the hub of our world. Is Europe not still the site of Learning prized by China. Much of modern science began in Europe. Did Europe not give the world it's greatest music?

We have given the the world its most universally revered language English, currently challenged by Spanish but in the future perhaps by Mandarin using our alphabet. 

Britain and Europe have great histories. The future belongs to huge populations of China and India with their massive populations, should we lie back isolated or join forces with the rest of Europe and compete?

DEVELOP EUROPE or sink

The political turmoil around the continent tells me that discontent with the EU is wide spread. 

The EU desperately to become more accountable without which it will never gain public support. Many of the annoying directives are aimed at improving and unifying standards across the continent. Resentment is not limited to Britain where we recently learned, in a chance meeting, of zero help towards the cost of meeting new EU standards hygiene from a couple starting a new butchers business, Jim in France talked recently of local farmers complaining about the cost of complying with European regulations on the handling of animal waste. Neither is the wish for democratic control of only local concern, the EU seems like a civil service unconstrained by democracy.

We as individuals need to be informed about current EU proposals to the same degree that we are of the activities in our own parliament via the very same mechanisms via Radio, TV and Internet. Is it my fault that I do not even know the name of my representative MEP or have little understanding of the complex structure of the EU? 

You may judge for yourselves if I am similarly ignorant of British parliamentary matters. HUMAN RIGHTS is one of Europe's biggest achievements, I for one am completely relaxed over European law in this area.

Yet from the current discussion you would think we had already lost our democracy, or by voting IN we will lose sovereignty to the EU.
I am convinced we should work whole heartedly in positive negotiation with other nation states to produce the stable, successful, EU all the nations of Europe need.

STRONGER IN EUROPE